Investigating the impact of emerging renewable energy technologies on reducing carbon emissions

Abstract

This research quantitatively investigates and models the potential carbon emissions reduction impacts of emerging renewable electricity generation technologies out to 2050. An extensive literature review first identifies key technologies within the concentrated solar power, geothermal, tidal, wave energy and bioenergy sectors which currently represent or demonstrate strong future potential to provide substantial new sources of sustainable energy based on technological viability and scalability. Custom scenario analysis across technology-specific simulations provides projected deployment pathways and emissions mitigation capabilities under a range of assumptions related to cost trends, policies, grid development, and other macroeconomic factors. Total addressable market modelling and geospatial resource mapping inform hypothetical installed capacity, power generation and grid penetration for each technology. Life cycle assessment and meta-analysis synthesis provide emission factor per electricity outputs. Resulting emission reduction pathways are contextualized within IPCC benchmarks. Multivariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis illuminates critical system dynamics and uncertainties impacting decarbonization. Key conclusions prioritize the most impactful technologies, developments and supporting policy frameworks for maximizing emerging renewable contributions to urgent deep decarbonization imperatives.