Electricity Price Instability over Time: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Abstract

Competition in electricity markets leads to volatile conditions which cause persistent price fluctuations over time. This study explores the problem of electricity pricing fluctuations in the DE-LU bidding zone from October 2018 to March 2022 by applying time series analysis. The determinants of electricity price fluctuations are broken down into three groups: exogenous prices (gas, coal and CO2 prices), internal (consumption and generation) and external (net import between neighboring bidding zones) electricity flows. Based on the SARIMAX model, we tried to combine all these factors to forecast electricity prices in the single bidding zone. It was found that the SARIMAX (1, 1, 2) × (3, 1, 0, 7) model with exogenous prices, internal and external electricity flows, which has the lowest AIC and MAPE values, is the best-fitted model for the DE-LU bidding zone. Anonymous trading and unpredictable individual bidding strategies lead to persistent price volatility, which causes electricity prices to deviate from fundamental trends. To reveal the risk factors, the SARIMAX model of electricity prices needs to be supplemented with a GARCH model of the residual returns. For forecasting electricity price residual volatility in the DE-LU bidding zone, the SARIMAX model with exogenous prices, internal and external electricity flows must be accompanied with the GARCH (7, 0) model.