Numerical Weather Prediction Correction Strategy for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit and XGBoost

Abstract

Accurate short-term wind power forecasting (WPF) plays a crucial role in grid scheduling and wind power accommodation. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) wind speed is the fundamental data for short-term WPF. At present, reducing NWP wind speed forecast errors contributes to improving the accuracy of WPF from the perspective of data quality. In this article, a variational mode decomposition combined with bidirectional gated recurrent unit (VMD-BGRU) method for NWP wind speed correction and XGBoost forecasting model are proposed. First, several NWP wind speed sub-series are divided by VMD to obtain more abundant multidimensional timing features. BGRU is applied to establish the potential relation between decomposed NWP wind speed sub-series and measured wind speed and get the proposed wind speed correction model. Then, a more clear regression forecasting model is trained based on XGBoost using historical measured wind speed and power. The corrected NWP wind speed is used to forecast wind power by XGBoost. Finally, the superiority of the proposed method is validated on a wind farm located in China. The results show that the proposed correction model and forecasting model outperform other compared models.