Short-term wind power combination forecasting method based on wind speed correction of numerical weather prediction

Abstract

The temporal variation of wind power is primarily influenced by wind speed, exhibiting high levels of randomness and fluctuation. The accuracy of short-term wind power forecasts is greatly affected by the quality of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data. However, the prediction error of NWP is common, and posing challenges to the precision of wind power prediction. To address this issue, the paper proposes a NWP wind speed error correction model based on Residual Network-Gated Recurrent Unit (ResNet-GRU). The model corrects the forecasted wind speeds at different heights to provide reliable data foundation for subsequent predictions. Furthermore, in order to overcome the difficulty of selecting network parameters for the combined prediction model, we integrate the Kepler Optimization Algorithm (KOA) intelligent algorithm to achieve optimal parameter selection for the model. We propose a Convolutional Neural Network-Long and Short-Term Memory Network (CNN-LSTM) based on Attention Mechanism for short-term wind power prediction. Finally, the proposed methods are validated using data from a wind farm in northwest China, demonstrating their effectiveness in improving prediction accuracy and their practical value in engineering applications.