Change-Point Detection for Object-Valued Time Series

Abstract

This article is concerned with change point detection for object-valued data that reside in a metric space, which has attracted some recent interests in statistics and econometrics literature. The existing methods either focus on independent data or can only detect change in the Fréchet mean or variance. In this article, we propose a self-normalization (SN, hereafter) based statistic for detecting a shift in the marginal distribution of object-valued time series. Our test is universally applicable to a wide range of object-valued data, such as distributional and network data, and can accommodate weak serial dependence. In addition the proposed test statistic is almost tuning parameter free, has pivotal limiting null distribution and only uses the pairwise distances. When combined with the Wild Binary Segmentation algorithm (WBS, hereafter), our statistic can be used to estimate the number and locations of multiple change points. Asymptotic results for our SN based statistic are derived under both null and local alternatives in the single change point setting. For the first time, the WBS estimation consistency is shown for a broad class of object-valued time series and in a nonparametric setting, which requires new nonstandard theoretical arguments. Extensive numerical experiments and real data analysis are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness and broad applicability of our proposed method.