Application of GNSS derived precipitable water vapour prediction in West Africa

Abstract

Abstract Atmospheric water vapour, a major component in weather systems serves as the main source for precipitation, provides latent heat which helps maintain the earth's energy balance and a major parameter in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. An observational technique based on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) has made it possible to easily retrieve Precipitable Water (PW) at station's antenna position with very high spatial and temporal variabilities. GNSS techniques are superior to ground-based and balloons sensors in terms of accuracy, ease of use, wider coverage and easier assimilation into NWP models. This study sought to use prediction models using daily observational data from Four (4) International GNSS Service stations in West Africa. The best prediction model can be used in cases of station outages and to predict PW over data poor regions using computed Zenith Tropospheric Delays (ZTD). gLAB software was used to process the stations' data in Precise Point Positioning mode and PW were retrieved using station's temperature and pressure values. Computed PW were compared against Total Column Water Vapour from ERA-Interim Reanalysis data in 2016. Correlation coefficient (R 2 ) values ranging from 0.947 — 0.995 were obtained for the four stations. With computed PW's, three regression models were tested to find the best-fit with PW as the dependent variable and ZTD being the independent variable. The quadratic model gave the highest R 2 and lowest RMSE values as against the linear and exponential models. Time series forecasts models such as moving average, autoregressive, exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average were also employed. The forecasts results were compared against ZTD with autoregressive model reporting the highest R 2 and lowest RMSE amongst the forecast models developed.