Stationary vs non-stationary modelling of flood frequency distribution across northwest England

Abstract

Extraordinary flood events occurred recently in northwest England, with several severe floods in Cumbria, Lancashire and the Manchester area in 2004, 2009 and 2015. These clustered extraordinary events have raised the question of whether any changes in the magnitude and frequency of river flows in the region can be detected. For this purpose, the annual maximum series of 39 river gauging stations in the study area are analysed. In particular, non-stationary models that include time, annual rainfall and annual temperature as predictors are investigated. Most records demonstrate a marked non-stationary behaviour and an increase of up to 75% in flood quantile estimates during the study period. Annual rainfall explains the largest proportion of variability in the peak flow series relative to other predictors considered in our study, providing practitioners with a useful framework for updating flood quantile estimates based on the dynamics of this highly accessible and informative climate indicator.