A Complexity Theory for Public Policy

Abstract

Introduction Part I: Concepts 1. Complexity Theory and Public Policy 1.1 Public Policy: Simple or Complex? 1.2 A Definition of Public Policy from a Complexity Theory Perspective 1.3 What is Complexity? 1.4 Complex, Complicated, and Simple 1.5 Complex Systems or Complex Adaptive Systems? 1.6 Chapter Summary 2. Systems and Systemness 2.1 What is a System? 2.2 Open and Closed Systems 2.3 Systems and Networks 2.4 System Stability and Dynamics: Structures and Procesees 2.5 Systemness and System Integration 2.6 Who Defines a Systems 2.7 Chapter Summary 3. Emergence 3.1 Emergence, Micro-Macro Relations, and Agents and Structures 3.2 A History of the Concepts of Holism and Emergence 3.3 Emergence and Complexity Theory: An Overview 3.4 Emergence and Macro Structures 3.5 Mechanisms of Emergence 3.6 Irreducibility 3.7 Downward Causation 3.8 Structuration 3.9 Chapter Summary and Implication for Policy 4. Self Organization 4.1 A Brief History of Self-Organizational Thinking 4.2 Issues in Self-Organization 4.3 What is Self? 4.4 Self-Organizations Agents 4.5 Self-Organization in Nature 4.6 Autopoiesis and Self-Referentiality 4.7 Applications of Self Organization in Management, Planning and Policy 4.8 Chapter Summary and Implications for Public Policy 5. System Dynamics 5.1 System Dynamics and Complexity Theory 5.2 Self-Organized Criticality 5.3 Self-Referentiality 5.4 Co-evolution 5.5 System Dynamics and Public Policy 5.6 The Five Propositions Revisited Part II: Epistemology and Methodology 6. Epistemology of Complexity - Uncertainty and Contextuality 6.1 Determinism, Certainty and Predictability 6.2 Uncertainty in the Knowledge of Complex Systems 6.3 Objectivity, Generalizability, and Contextuality 6.4 Chapter Summary and Implication for Public Policy 7. Espistemology - Phenomenology, Hermeneutics and Post-Structuralism 7.1 Phenomenology 7.2 Hermeneutics 7.3 Postmodernism/Post Structuralism 7.4 Complexity Theory: Pluralism, Phenomenology and Post Structuralism 7.5 Chapter Summary and Implications for Public Policy 8. Methods in Complexity Research - Overview and Macro Methods 8.1 Quantitative and Qualitative Methods 8.2 Methods for Complexity Research: A Taxonomy 8.3 Macro Methods of Investigating Structures 8.4 Methods of Detecting Structural Change 8.5 Chapter Summary 9. Methods of Complexity Research - Micro-Macro Methods 9.1 Social Network Analyses 9.2 Agent Based Simulations 9.3 Qualitative Case Studies 9.4 Chapter Summary 10. Methods of Complexity Research - Micro Methods 10.1 The Problem of Artificiality in ABS and Experiments 10.2 Methods of Cognitive Mapping 10.3 Q Methodology 10.4 Concept Mapping 10.5 Repertory Grids 10.6 Chapter Summary 11. Closing Thoughts 11.1 What Kind of Theory is Complexity Theory? 11.2 Policies as Systems 11.3 Emergence: Policies and Outcomes 11.4 Systems Dynamics 11.5 Urban Dynamics and Sprawl: An Illustration of Complexity Thinking 11.6 In Closing