Spatial distribution and cluster analysis of road traffic accidents in Nepal

Abstract

Background Road traffic accidents (RTAs) continue to pose a significant menace to global public health in the form of a high incidence of mortality, disability and economic expense. Their space-time trends are of importance for policy decision-making. This particular study employed spatial analysis to identify high-risk zones and found significant clustering of accidents in urban centers as well as increasing semi-urban and rural vulnerabilities, supporting the need for safety interventions and road infrastructure improvements in Nepal. This paper aims to determine and analyze the incidence of RTAs in Nepal from 2019 to 2022, primarily focusing on vehicle-types and spatial distribution. Methods Data from all seven provinces and Kathmandu Valley Traffic Police Office were analyzed to examine RTAs patterns across 77 districts of Nepal. The data were processed and visualized using Quantum GIS (QGIS), and spatial analysis performed using Global and Local Moran’s I statistics, along with Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), to identify spatial clusters of accidents. Results This study identified statistically significant spatial clustering of vehicle types involved in RTAs. High-High (HH) clusters, indicating areas with elevated accident rates surrounded by similarly high-risk zones were concentrated in urban centers particularly Kathmandu, Lalitpur, and Bhaktapur. Conversely, Low-Low (LL) clusters, reflecting lower accident rates in sparsely populated regions, were observed in rural areas. Temporal analysis revealed a steady rise in RTAs incidence, with rates increasing from 63.35 per 100,000 population in 2019–2020 (Moran’s I = 0.741) to 94.46 in 2020–2021 (Moran’s I = 0.595) and 123.05 in 2021–2022 (Moran’s I = 0.556). Conclusion This present study observed the growing incidence of RTAs in Nepal. The results highlight the critical need for geographically tailored road safety interventions with priority given to urban and semi-urban zones. Effective strategies should emphasize enhanced road traffic law enforcement, strict regulation of commercial and two-wheeled vehicles as well as targeted infrastructure upgrades in an effective manner.