Penerapan Metode Teorema Bayes untuk Memprediksi Penyakit pada Tanaman Kopi

Abstract

Coffee is a leading commodity in Indonesia's agricultural sector, possessing high economic value and providing a livelihood for many farmers. However, coffee plant productivity often declines significantly due to various diseases affecting the leaves, stems, and berries. This situation is exacerbated by the lack of knowledge among most farmers in recognizing early disease symptoms, resulting in delayed treatment. Consequently, crop losses are unavoidable. Based on these challenges, this study aims to design and build an expert system capable of diagnosing coffee plant diseases quickly, precisely, and accurately using the Bayesian Theorem method. This method was chosen because it can calculate the probability of a disease occurring based on observed symptoms in plants. The Bayesian approach allows the system to provide more reliable diagnostic results by updating the probability values ​​as new evidence is introduced. The developed expert system is web-based, making it easily accessible to users, both farmers and other interested parties. Users simply select the symptoms observed in coffee plants, and the system will then provide a diagnostic result in the form of possible diseases and their probability levels. Test results indicate that the system is capable of providing fairly accurate diagnostic results and can be used as a basis for farmers in making initial decisions regarding coffee plant disease management. With this expert system, farmers are expected to improve their ability to detect coffee plant diseases early, thereby maintaining crop productivity. This expert system is expected to be an effective decision support tool for farmers to reduce crop losses and improve agricultural sustainability.