Naïve Bayes Algorithm Analysis For Student Graduation Timeliness Prediction

Abstract

This study developed a student graduation prediction system using the Naïve Bayes algorithm, using PS1-PS4 scores, PK, and SKS as indicators of academic progress. This model achieved 88.33% accuracy and an ROC value of 0.900, indicating superior predictive ability. These results outperform other common models such as logistic regression and the C4.5 decision tree, which have approximately 85% accuracy in predicting student graduation. These results also outperform previous research in the same field, which had ROC values of approximately 0.85.Graduation predictions were categorized as "ON TIME" and "LATE" with high precision. The Naïve Bayes algorithm has proven effective in predicting student graduation, particularly in identifying factors that influence graduation timeliness, such as poor academic performance, difficulty completing final assignments, poor personal conditions, and lack of motivation and interest.By designing a graduation prediction system using the Naïve Bayes algorithm, this research aims to help educational institutions predict student graduation timeliness and provide appropriate interventions. This system can improve educational quality and reduce dropout rates, making it an important tool for educational institutions to improve graduate quality and achieve their academic goals.This research demonstrates that the Naïve Bayes algorithm can be an effective and accurate graduation prediction method, thus helping educational institutions develop strategies to improve educational quality and reduce dropout rates. Therefore, this research has the potential to significantly impact higher education institutions and assist them in achieving their academic goals.