Electricity Load Forecasting Method Based on the GRA-FEDformer Algorithm

Abstract

In recent years, Transformer-based methods have shown full potential in power load forecasting problems. However, their computational cost is high, while it is difficult to capture the global characteristics of the time series. When the forecasting time length is long, the overall shift of the forecasting trend often occurs. Therefore, this paper proposes a gray relation analysis–frequency-enhanced decomposition transformer (GRA-FEDformer) method for forecasting power loads in power systems. Firstly, considering the impact of different weather factors on power loads, the correlation between various factors and power loads was analyzed using the GRA method to screen out the high-correlation factors as model inputs. Secondly, a frequency decomposition method for long short-time-scale components was utilized. Its combination with the transformer-based model can give the deep learning model an ability to simultaneously capture the fluctuating behavior of the short time scale and the overall trend of changes in the long time scale in power loads. The experimental results show that the proposed method had better forecasting performance than the other methods for a one-year dataset in a region of Morocco. In particular, the advantages of the proposed method were more obvious in the forecasting task with a longer forecasting length.