Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping of COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh

Abstract

Background COVID-19 is a highly transmittable respiratory illness induced by SARS-CoV-2, a novel coronavirus. The spatio-temporal analysis considers interactions between space and time is essential for understanding the virus’s transmission pattern and developing efficient mitigation strategies. Objective This study explicitly examines how meteorological, demographic, and vaccination with all doses of risk factors are interrelated with COVID-19’s complex evolution and dynamics in 64 Bangladeshi districts over space and time. Methods The study employed Bayesian spatio-temporal Poisson modeling to determine the most suitable model, including linear trend, analysis of variance (ANOVA), separable models, and Poisson temporal model for spatiotemporal effects. The study employed the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) for model selection. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach also provided information regarding both prior and posterior realizations. Results The results of our study indicate that the spatio-temporal Poisson ANOVA model outperformed all other models when considering various criteria for model selection and validation. This finding underscores the significant relationship between spatial and temporal variations and the number of cases. Additionally, our analysis reveals that maximum temperature does not appear to have a significant association with infected cases. On the other hand, factors such as humidity (%), population density, urban population, aging index, literacy rate (%), households with internet users (%), and complete vaccination coverage all play vital roles in correlating with the number of affected cases in Bangladesh. Conclusions The research has demonstrated that demographic, meteorological, and vaccination variables possess significant potential to be associated with COVID-19-affected cases in Bangladesh. These data show that there are interconnections between space and time, which shows how important it is to use integrated modeling in pandemic management. An assessment of the risks particular to an area allows government agencies and communities to concentrate their efforts to mitigate those risks.