Evaluation of Inundation Probability Using Storm Surge Coastal Inundation Prediction Map DB

Abstract

This study evaluates the probability of inundation, which is not provided by deterministic storm surge coastal inundation prediction maps based on return periods. Busan was selected as the study area and an inundation database was constructed using hypothetical typhoon scenarios to create coastal inundation prediction maps. Areas with a storm surge inundation probability of more than 90% were identified along the coastline, accounting for up to 5% of the total inundated area. Most other inundated regions demonstrated an inundation probability of approximately 20%. The probabilities for inundation depths of over 2.0 m and 3.0 m were evaluated to be no more than 50%, and 30%, respectively. The generated probability information for the storm surge inundation can be utilized not only to assess coastal inundation risk, but also in other applications to account for uncertainties due to climate change-induced variations in typhoon intensity and numerical model errors, which are not considered in return period-based coastal inundation prediction maps using hypothetical scenarios and numerical models.