Predictors of Relapse and Post-Relapse Outcomes in Patients with Newly-Diagnosed Acute Myeloid Leukemia Treated with Venetoclax + Hypomethylating Agent

Abstract

Background Venetoclax + hypomethylating agent (Ven-HMA) therapy has demonstrated improved outcomes in elderly/unfit patients with newly-diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (ND-AML) (N Engl J Med 2020;383). However, ~50% of patients who respond to Ven-HMA, eventually relapse (Am J Hematol 2024;99). In the current study we examined the prognostic contribution of gene mutations, karyotype, measurable residual disease (MRD) status and clinical risk factors for relapse in patients with ND-AML treated with Ven-HMA therapy. Methods Our study population of ND-AML was retrospectively recruited from Mayo Clinic (MN, AZ, FL), after institutional review board approval and based on documentation of complete remission with/without count recovery (CR/CRi) following Ven-HMA therapy. Relapse-free survival was determined from the time of remission to relapse or last follow-up. Survival analysis was censored for transplant. The 2022 European LeukemiaNet (ELN) criteria was used to assign cytogenetic risk and classify treatment response (Blood 2022;140). Standard statistical analyses were performed using JMP Pro (Version 17.0.0). Results 247 ND-AML patients treated with Ven-HMA (median age 73 years, 62% male, 64% de novo) who achieved CR (n=153), or CRi (n=94) were included. MRD by multiparameter flow cytometry (sensitivity 0.01%) performed at the time of CR/CRi, was negative in 117 (70%) of 166 informative cases. ELN cytogenetic risk categories at diagnosis included favorable 2%, intermediate 69%, or adverse 29%. Mutations involved TET2 21%, SRSF2 21%, TP53 19%, ASXL1 18%, DNMT3A 18%, NPM1 17%, IDH2 15%, RUNX1 15%, K/NRAS 12%, IDH1 8%, FLT3-ITD 7%, and DDX41 in 6% of informative cases. Relapse was documented in a total of 99 (40%) patients who achieved CR (39%) or CRi (41%) after a median remission duration of 6 months (1-31). Patients that relapsed within the first-year vs those that did not, were more likely to be males (75% vs 55%), MRD positive (44% vs 24%), and harbor TP53 mutations (23% vs 16%). Univariate analysis for RFS identified male gender (12 vs 29 months; p=0.02), secondary AML (10 vs 21 months; p<0.01), adverse karyotype (9 vs 22 months; p<0.01), TP53 mutations (6 vs 18 months, p<0.01) and MRD positive remission (13 months vs not reached; p<0.01) as risk factors for relapse; on the other hand, IDH2 mutations (not reached vs 15 months; p<0.01) were associated with a lower risk of relapse. Multivariable analysis confirmed male gender (HR 2.2), TP53 mutations (HR 3.0) and MRD positive remission (HR 1.7) as unfavorable predictors of relapse. Subsequently, in a three-tiered relapse prediction model, RFS was significantly inferior in the presence of three risk factors (male gender, TP53 mutations, MRD positive remission) (n=10, median 4 months), vs two (n=34, median 10 months) vs ≤ 1 risk factor (n=122, median 31 months) (p<0.01); 1-year cumulative incidence of relapse was 100%, 56%, and 26% in the presence of three, two and ≤ 1 risk factors, respectively. 50 of 99 (65%) patients received salvage therapy which included cladribine-cytarabine-Ven (n=19), intensive induction chemotherapy (n=9), FLT3 inhibitors (n=5), Ven-HMA-FLT3 inhibitor (n=1), IDH1/2 inhibitors (n=5), glasdegib-cytarabine (n=4), gemtuzumab (n=3), lenalidomide (n=1), or investigational therapies (n=3); in addition, Ven-HMA was resumed in 14 patients in whom treatment had been discontinued for a median of 5 months (2-12). Overall, 20 (31%) of patients achieved second CR/CRi and response rates were similar with intensive vs less intensive therapy (CR/CRi; 44% vs 29%; p=0.37). Median follow up after relapse was 3.4 months (1-66), during which 73 (74%) deaths, and 4 (5%) ASCT were recorded. Median transplant-censored survival was 4.2 months (1-year; 22%), and inferior in patients with adverse karyotype (median 4.6 vs 3.4 months; p=0.02), and TP53 mutations (3.6 vs 4.4; p=0.11); on the other hand, male gender (3.5 vs 6.8 months; p=0.51), MRD positive remission (4.6 vs 4.2; p=0.56), and IDH2 mutations (6.7 vs 4.2; p=0.28), did not influence post-relapse survival. Conclusions The current study identifies male gender, TP53 mutations, and MRD status as powerful predictors of relapse and proposes a relapse prediction model for ND-AML patients receiving Ven-HMA therapy. Furthermore, relapse following Ven-HMA was associated with uniformly poor outcomes, regardless of salvage treatment strategy.