TCN-GRU Based on Attention Mechanism for Solar Irradiance Prediction

Abstract

The global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is the most important metric for evaluating solar resources. The accurate prediction of GHI is of great significance for effectively assessing solar energy resources and selecting photovoltaic power stations. Considering the time series nature of the GHI and monitoring sites dispersed over different latitudes, longitudes, and altitudes, this study proposes a model combining deep neural networks and deep convolutional neural networks for the multi-step prediction of GHI. The model utilizes parallel temporal convolutional networks and gate recurrent unit attention for the prediction, and the final prediction result is obtained by multilayer perceptron. The results show that, compared to the second-ranked algorithm, the proposed model improves the evaluation metrics of mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error by 24.4%, 33.33%, and 24.3%, respectively.