Convolutional long short-term memory neural network for groundwater change prediction

Abstract

Forecasting groundwater changes is a crucial step towards effective water resource planning and sustainable management. Conventional models still demonstrated insufficient performance when aquifers have high spatio-temporal heterogeneity or inadequate availability of data in simulating groundwater behavior. In this regard, a spatio-temporal groundwater deep learning model is proposed to be applied for monthly groundwater prediction over the entire Choushui River Alluvial Fan in Central Taiwan. The combination of the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) known as Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (CLSTM) Neural Network is proposed and investigated. Result showed that the monthly groundwater simulations from the proposed neural model were better reflective of the original observation data while producing significant improvements in comparison to only the CNN, LSTM as well as classical neural models. The study also explored the performance of the Masked CLSTM model which is designed to handle missing data by reconstructing incomplete spatio-temporal input images, enhancing groundwater forecasting through image inpainting. The findings indicated that the neural architecture can efficiently extract the relevant spatial features from the past incomplete information of hydraulic head observations under various masking scenarios while simultaneously handling the varying temporal dependencies over the entire study region. The proposed model showed strong reliability in reconstructing and simulating the spatial distribution of hydraulic heads for the following month, as evidenced by low RMSE values and high correlation coefficients when compared to observed data.