Stock Market Index Prediction using Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory

Abstract

The IHSG (Indonesia Stock Exchange Composite Index) is a stock price index in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) that serves as an indicator reflecting the performance of company stocks through stock price movements. Therefore, IHSG becomes a reference for investors in making investment decisions. Advanced stock exchanges generally have a strong influence on other stock exchanges. Several studies have proven the influence of one global index on another. Global index is a term that refers to each country's index to represent the movement of its country's stock performance. Forecasting IHSG can be one of the analyses that help investors make wise decisions when investing. To obtain an IHSG forecasting model, an appropriate and suitable method is needed, especially for data that has a large amount. LSTM is a development of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) which has the ability to remember information in a longer period of time, while Bi-LSTM is a development of LSTM which has the ability to remember information longer and can understand more complex patterns than LSTM. This research provide the IHSG forecasting based on global index factors. The results showed that the best Bi-LSTM model (6-9-1) had a better performance in predicting and forecasting JCI movements with a MAPE value of 0.572314% better than the best LSTM model (4-10-1) which had a MAPE of 0.74326%. With forecasting based on the Bi-LSTM model, it is expected to help investors in making decisions on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).