Research on Integrated Energy System Planning Model Considering Energy Market Risk

Abstract

The uncertainties and correlation of energy market prices present challenges to the planning and operation of the park-level integrated energy system (PIES). Overlooking extreme risks in electricity and natural gas markets can lead to substantial economic losses in the PIES. This paper introduces a planning model for the PIES using conditional value at risk (CVaR) that considers energy market risks and the correlation between electricity price (EP) and natural gas price (NGP). Then, a CVaR-based PIES planning model is established to co-optimize investment and operation, effectively measuring operational risks associated with renewable generation and energy markets.