Improving multilayer perceptron neural network using two enhanced moth-flame optimizers to forecast iron ore prices

Abstract

Abstract The quality of the output produced by the multi-layer perceptron neural network depends on the careful selection of its weights and biases. The gradient descent technique is commonly used for choosing MLP’s optimal configuration, but it can suffer from being stuck in local optima and slow convergence toward promising regions in the search space. In this article, we propose two new optimization algorithms based on the moth-flame optimization algorithm (MFO), which mimics moths’ special navigation methods at night. We use these algorithms to enhance the performance of the training process of the MLP neural network. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we apply it to the problem of predicting iron ore prices, which plays an important role in the continuous development of the steel industry. We use a large number of features to predict the iron ore price, and we select a promising set of features using two feature reduction methods: Pearson’s correlation and a newly proposed categorized correlation. Surprisingly, new features not mentioned in the literature are discovered, and some are discarded. The time series dataset used has been extracted from several sources and pre-processed to fit the proposed model. We compare our two proposed MFO algorithms, the roulette wheel moth-flame optimization algorithm and the global best moth-flame optimization algorithm, against four swarm intelligence algorithms and five classical machine learning techniques when predicting the iron ore price. The results acquired indicate the superior performance of the suggested algorithms concerning prediction accuracy, root-mean-square error, mean-square error, average absolute relative deviation, and mean absolute error. Overall, our work presents a promising approach for improving the performance of MLP neural networks, and it demonstrates its effectiveness in the challenging problem of predicting iron ore prices.