Estimating Flood Inundation in Urban Areas Using a Scenario Generation Method and Inundation Graphs

Abstract

As the frequency and intensity of natural and social disasters increase due to climate change, damage caused by disasters affects urban areas and facilities. Of those disasters, inundation occurs in urban areas due to rising water surface elevation because of concentrated rainfall from storm surges or urban drainage system failures. For this research, a scenario generation method for estimating flood inundation was developed to analyze the flood effects on urban areas to prepare for disasters and minimize damage. A scenario generation method using various distribution functions and return periods was developed and applied to create input values for the flow model for inundation analysis. By simulating multiple scenarios using a two-dimensional flow model and storing its results into a graph-form database called an inundation graph, it is possible to assess the probability and potential impact of different flood events quickly, which could be later used for disaster response and prevention. The flood risk and flood vulnerability of each section of the urban area could be evaluated based on the input data from the scenarios and the results of the flood analysis.