Wildfire Spread Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms

Abstract

Wildfires are one of the most destructive natural disasters that cause significant harm to both humans and the environment. Predicting their spread is critical for disaster management and preparedness. In this study, we have utilized machine learning algorithms, including Decision Tree Regression, XG Boost Regression, and Artificial Neural Networks, to predict the spread of wildfires using the Next Day Wildfire dataset. The dataset includes satellite images, weather, and geography conditions aggregated across the United States from 2012 to 2020. We preprocessed and engineered the dataset which includes the features such as elevation, wind direction and speed, temperature, humidity, precipitation, drought index, vegetation index, energy release component, and population density. We evaluated the models using the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) metric and found that the Decision Tree Regression algorithm performed the best with the lowest RMSE score. Our study highlights the potential of machine learning algorithms in predicting the spread of wildfires, which can aid in better disaster management and preparedness efforts.