Rain Fall Prediction using Ada Boost Machine Learning Ensemble Algorithm

Abstract

Every government takes initiative for the well-being of their citizens in terms of environment and climate in which they live. Global warming is one of the reason for climate change. With the help of machine learning algorithms in the flash light of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining techniques, weather predictions not only rainfall, lightings, thunder outbreaks, etc. can be predicted. Management of water reservoirs, flooding, traffic - control in smart cities, sewer system functioning and agricultural production are the hydro-meteorological factors that affect human life very drastically. Due to dynamic nature of atmosphere, existing Statistical techniques (Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT) and logistic regression (LR)) fail to provide good accuracy for rainfall forecasting. Different weather features (Temperature, Relative Humidity, Dew Point, Solar Radiation and Precipitable Water Vapour) are extracted for rainfall prediction. In this research work, data analysis using machine learning ensemble algorithm like Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost) is proposed. Dataset used for this classification application is taken from hydrological department, India from 1901-2015. Overall, proposed algorithm is feasible to be used in order to qualitatively predict rainfall with the help of R tool and Ada Boost algorithm. Accuracy rate and error false rates are compared with the existing Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm and the proposed one gives the better result.