The Safety Risk Assessment of Mine Metro Tunnel Construction Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Abstract

With the acceleration of urbanization, the construction of urban subway tunnel networks is advancing towards deeper, denser, and larger subterranean forms. Currently, there is a lack of systematic identification and dynamic reasoning analysis of factors throughout the entire process of subway tunnel construction using the mining method. To reduce the probability of accidents and improve safety risk management in the whole process of subway tunnel construction using the mining method, we propose a dynamic safety evaluation method based on Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and Bayesian Network (BN). Firstly, based on the identification of main stages of the construction process using the Work Breakdown Structure, a safety risk evaluation index system for subway tunnel construction using the mining method was constructed according to the Risk Breakdown Structure. Secondly, by combining Fuzzy Set Theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and the Bayesian Network, we established a dynamic safety risk evaluation model for subway tunnel construction using the mining method, based on FBN. Lastly, taking a large-section tunnel project using the mining method as an example, the effectiveness and accuracy of this model were verified. The results showed: (1) Causal reasoning analysis indicated that, under the condition of known prior probability, if the case reasoning result is greater than 5%, there is a significant possibility of a safety risk incident. The evaluation results of the model are basically consistent with the actual situation. (2) Diagnostic reasoning analysis revealed that factors such as the tunnel excavation method, the quality of the main waterproof construction, the quality of the detailed construction waterproofing, the design of the monitoring and measurement plan, and the results of the monitoring and measurements, are the main influences on the safety of subway tunnel construction using the mining method. (3) Secondary diagnostic reasoning demonstrated that repeated diagnostic reasoning for the main influencing factors, leading to an investigation path dominated by critical risk factors, can effectively reduce the overall project risk. This research is expected to provide useful insights for the scientific management of safety risks in the construction of subway tunnels using the mining method.