Understanding of Cyclone Vayu with WRF-ARW Model: A Case Study

Abstract

Cyclone Vayu skirted near the west coast of India, Gujrat in June 2019 as a very severe cyclonic storm. The present study attempts to understand cyclone Vayu through the WRF-ARW initialized with two different initial conditions, NCEP-FNL data and NGFS data as the initial and boundary conditions. The reliability of the simulated wind speed intensity, sea level pressure, and the cyclone tracks between 10–15 June are evaluated against the IMD best track data and the coastal mast in Jafrabad. Results indicate that the wind speed intensity and the sea level pressure simulated by the model with NCEP data perform better. Overall track error estimate of ~0.44 km for both simulations is seen. Wind speed intensity of the model with NCEP data shows good agreement with the coastal mast, r2 of 0.7 and mean absolute error of 1.92 m/s, that of NGFS is 0.33 and 3.19 m/s respectively.