Prediction Uncertainty in Floodplain Elevation and its Effect on Flood Inundation Modelling

Abstract

Flood awareness in the United Kingdom has risen dramatically in the last few years after several major flood events. Flood inundation models allow river discharge upstream to be related directly to flood extent downstream and are, therefore, potentially very useful predictive tools that can be used in a variety of real and "what-if" scenarios. However, all data used (and hence parameters and variables) in flood inundation models have inherent uncertainty. The challenge is to quantify this uncertainty and, perhaps more importantly, assess the effect that uncertainty may have on model predictions.