Using Bayesian networks with Max-Min Hill-Climbing algorithm to detect factors related to multimorbidity

Abstract

Objectives Multimorbidity (MMD) is a medical condition that is linked with high prevalence and closely related to many adverse health outcomes and expensive medical costs. The present study aimed to construct Bayesian networks (BNs) with Max-Min Hill-Climbing algorithm (MMHC) algorithm to explore the network relationship between MMD and its related factors. We also aimed to compare the performance of BNs with traditional multivariate logistic regression model. Methods The data was downloaded from the Online Open Database of CHARLS 2018, a population-based longitudinal survey. In this study, we included 10 variables from data on demographic background, health status and functioning, and lifestyle. Missing value imputation was first performed using Random Forest. Afterward, the variables were included into logistic regression model construction and BNs model construction. The structural learning of BNs was achieved using MMHC algorithm and the parameter learning was conducted using maximum likelihood estimation. Results Among 19,752 individuals (9,313 men and 10,439 women) aged 64.73 ± 10.32 years, there are 9,129 ones without MMD (46.2%) and 10,623 ones with MMD (53.8%). Logistic regression model suggests that physical activity, sex, age, sleep duration, nap, smoking, and alcohol consumption are associated with MMD ( P < 0.05). BNs, by establishing a complicated network relationship, reveals that age, sleep duration, and physical activity have a direct connection with MMD. It also shows that education levels are indirectly connected to MMD through sleep duration and residence is indirectly linked to MMD through sleep duration. Conclusion BNs could graphically reveal the complex network relationship between MMD and its related factors, outperforming traditional logistic regression model. Besides, BNs allows for risk reasoning for MMD through Bayesian reasoning, which is more consistent with clinical practice and thus holds some application prospects.