Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of COVID-19 Infected Cases and Deaths

Abstract

The primary objectives of the present study are to investigate the short- and long-term cointegration relationships between the cumulative number of new cases of COVID-19 infections (X) and the cumulative numbers of deaths due to COVID-19 (Y), to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between these variables using an autoregressive distributed lag model and bounds cointegration tests, and to study the stability of the estimated model. The cumulative sum of recursive residuals test and the cumulative sum of recursive residuals squares tests are used to assess the consistency of the model parameters. © 2021 Natural Sciences Publishing. All rights reserved.