Modeling Rainfall Runoff Relations at Arid Catchments Using Conceptual Hydrological Modeling Approach

Abstract

Objective: To develop a simple deterministic lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Methods/statistical analysis: This study developed a model based on the water balance, in which the model tracks precipitation, simulated soil water content, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, percolation, and return streamflow. The major input requirements for this model are hourly rainfall, hourly potential evaporation and the average daily streamflow record. The model is calibrated and tested using the available data collected from only one semi-arid ephemeral catchment located in the central part of Jordan. The model was optimized using Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE.UA) optimization method. The performance of the model was evaluated using the goodness of fit measures. Findings: The simulation results obtained show that the proposed model has a good match between observed and simulated streamflow for both optimization and validation stages. Application/improvements: The good simulation results obtained indicate that the model will be useful in design of hydraulic structures and for effective management of water resources at arid and semi-arid catchments. In order to strengthen the validation and applicability of the proposed model, empirical research needs to be conducted. Further research is required to assess the predictive uncertainty associated with model parameters and other inputs. Keywords: Hydrological Modeling, Rainfall-Runoff Relation, Streamflow Forecasting, Conceptual Model, Arid Catchments.