Nonstationary Flood Hazard Analysis in Response to Climate Change and Population Growth

Abstract

The predictions of flood hazard over the design life of a hydrological project are of great importance for hydrological engineering design under the changing environment. The concept of a nonstationary flood hazard has been formulated by extending the geometric distribution to account for time-varying exceedance probabilities over the design life of a project. However, to our knowledge, only time covariate is used to estimate the nonstationary flood hazard over the lifespan of a project, which lacks physical meaning and may lead to unreasonable results. In this study, we aim to strengthen the physical meaning of nonstationary flood hazard analysis by investigating the impacts of climate change and population growth. For this purpose, two physical covariates, i.e., rainfall and population, are introduced to improve the characterization of nonstationary frequency over a given design lifespan. The annual maximum flood series of Xijiang River (increasing trend) and Weihe River (decreasing trend) are chosen as illustrations, respectively. The results indicated that: (1) the explanatory power of population and rainfall is better than time covariate in the study areas; (2) the nonstationary models with physical covariates possess more appropriate statistical parameters and thus are able to provide more reasonable estimates of a nonstationary flood hazard; and (3) the confidences intervals of nonstationary design flood can be greatly reduced by employing physical covariates. Therefore, nonstationary flood design and hazard analysis with physical covariates are recommended in changing environments.