Optimal Evacuation Strategy for Parking Lots Considering the Dynamic Background Traffic Flows

Abstract

An optimal evacuation strategy for parking lots can shorten evacuation times and reduce casualties and economic loss. However, the impact of dynamic background traffic flows in a road network on the evacuation plan is rarely taken into account in existing approaches. This research develops an optimal evacuation model with total evacuation time minimization by dividing the evacuation process in a parking lot into two periods. In the first period, a queuing theory is used to estimate the queuing time, and in the second period, a traffic flow equilibrium model and an intersection delay model are employed to simulate vehicles’ route choice. To deal with these models, a modified ant colony algorithm is developed. The results of a numerical example prove that the proposed method has an advantage in improving evacuation efficiency. The results also show that background traffic flows affect not only vehicles’ average queuing time in parking lots but also optimal evacuation route choice. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that the minimum threshold of headway time that allows vehicles out of a parking lot to merge into the background traffic flows on the roads connecting the exits has a great impact on average queuing time, average travel time, and total evacuation time.