Exploiting Spatio-Temporal Correlations with Multiple 3D Convolutional Neural Networks for Citywide Vehicle Flow Prediction

Abstract

Predicting vehicle flows is of great importance to traffic management and public safety in smart cities, and very challenging as it is affected by many complex factors, such as spatio-temporal dependencies with external factors (e.g., holidays, events and weather). Recently, deep learning has shown remarkable performance on traditional challenging tasks, such as image classification, due to its powerful feature learning capabilities. Some works have utilized LSTMs to connect the high-level layers of 2D convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to learn the spatio-temporal features, and have shown better performance as compared to many classical methods in traffic prediction. However, these works only build temporal connections on the high-level features at the top layer while leaving the spatio-temporal correlations in the low-level layers not fully exploited. In this paper, we propose to apply 3D CNNs to learn the spatio-temporal correlation features jointly from low-level to high-level layers for traffic data. We also design an end-to-end structure, named as MST3D, especially for vehicle flow prediction. MST3D can learn spatial and multiple temporal dependencies jointly by multiple 3D CNNs, combine the learned features with external factors and assign different weights to different branches dynamically. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first framework that utilizes 3D CNNs for traffic prediction. Experiments on two vehicle flow datasets Beijing and New York City have demonstrated that the proposed framework, MST3D, outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.