Regional Aspects of Canada's Economic Growth, 1890-1929

Abstract

One of the most interesting periods of Canadian economic history is that which encompasses the years 1890 to 1929. During this period, the prairie provinces were largely settled, new staple exports emerged, and regional interdependence increased. Any explanation of national economic growth over these years, then, necessarily involves an examination of the different responses among regions to these new sources of growth. In essence, we are asking the question: what is the relation between the spatial reallocation of economic activity and the growth of the Canadian economy over this period? To answer this question and to look at some of its implications, regional (provincial) gross-value-added estimates for selected years were made. Regional estimates of gross value added were made for the years 1890, 1910, and 1929. These three years were chosen to satisfy, as closely as possible, the condition that they represent a similar level of economic activity at each point of time. These years were chosen since they are all years of relatively high economic activity. The first two years faced the additional constraint that they had to coincide with census dates. The choice of years of high level economic activity was made in order to avoid biases in the trend rates of growth which would arise if the initial and terminal dates were at different phases of the business cycle. For example, if the initial year coincided with a year of high unemployment and the terminal year low unemployment, then an upward bias in growth rates might have occurred. Initial and terminal dates chosen at the trough of business cycles would also have avoided this potential slope bias.