Tsunami Inundation Mapping in Lima, for Two Tsunami Source Scenarios

Abstract

Within the framework of the project Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in Peru (JST-JICA SATREPS), this study determines tsunami inundation mapping for the coastal area of Lima city, based on numerical modeling and two different tsunami seismic scenarios. Additionally, remote sensing data and geographic information system (GIS) analysis are incorporated in order to improve the accuracy of numerical modeling results. Moreover, tsunami impact is evaluated through application of a tsunami casualty index (TCI) using tsunami modeling results. Numerical results, in terms of maximum tsunami depth, show a maximum inundation height of 6 m and 15.8 m for a potential scenario (first source model) and for a past scenario (second source model), respectively. In terms of inundation area, the maximum extension is 1.3 km with a runup height of 5.3 m for the first scenario. The maximum extension is 2.1 km with a runup height of 11.4 m for the second scenario. The average TCI value obtained for the first scenario is 0.36 for the whole inundation domain. The second scenario gives a mean value of 0.64, where TCI equal to 1.00 represents the highest condition of risk. The results presented in this paper provide important information about understanding tsunami inundation features and, consequently, may be useful in designing an adequate tsunami evacuation plan for Lima city.