Improved hydrological projections and reservoir management in the Upper Indus Basin under the changing climate

Abstract

Abstract The availability of water resources plays an important role for the economy of a country. The nexus of energy‐food‐water are interlinked and of particular importance in the uncertain environment of developing countries. In Pakistan, agriculture contributes 25% to the gross domestic product. The Indus River contributes 44% of the available water to irrigation of crops and the ecosystem, and currently produces 5,112 MW electricity, with the potential to produce 38,602 MW electricity. This makes it important to investigate the status of water availability in the Upper Indus Basin under existing emission scenarios. In this study, the future availability of water is projected for the Indus River under the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. A meta‐analysis has been conducted to present a combined picture by combining the results from the emission scenarios. Our meta‐analysis shows higher confidence in RCPs projections. The results show that suffcient water will be available in the Indus River that will meet the demands of water in future but there will be scarcity of water in some months under each scenario. However, by proper management and optimum utilisation of the available water, this scarcity can be resolved.