Dynamic Medical Risk Assessment based on Bow-tie Approach and Bayesian Network

Abstract

Healthcare is regarded as an industry with high risk that has an important influence on patient safety and medical quality. Traditional bow-tie method lacks the quantitative applications in medical areas and has limitations on dynamic medical risk assessment. Through mapping a bow-tie into a corresponding Bayesian network, a framework of quantitative analysis in healthcare using bow-tie approach is built in this paper and dynamic risk assessment is conducted by updating probability based on Bayes’ theorem. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by an example of aeroembolism in the process of hemodialysis.