PEMODELAN DATA KEMATIAN BAYI DENGAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION

Abstract

Overdispersion phenomenon and the influence of location or spatial aspect on data are handled using Binomial Geographically Weighted Regression (GWNBR). GWNBR is the best solution to form a regression analysis that is specific to each observation’s location. The analysis resulted in parameter value which different from one observation to another between location. The Weighting Matrix Selection is done before doing The GWNBR modeling. Different weighting will resulted in different model. Thus this study aims to investigate the best fit model using infant mortality data that is produced by some kind of weighting such as fixed kernel Gaussian, fixed kernel Bisquare, adaptive kernel Gaussian and adaptive kernal Bisquare in GWNBR modeling. This region study covers all the districts/municipalities in Java because the number of observations are more numerous and have more diverse characteristics. The study shows that out of four kernel functions, infant mortality data in Java2012, the best fit model is produced by fixed kernel Gaussian function. Besides that GWNBR with fixed kernel Gaussian also shows better result than the poisson regression and negative binomial regression for data modeling on infant mortality based on the value of AIC and Deviance. Keywords: GWNBR, infant mortality, fixed gaussian, fixed bisquare, adaptive gaussian, adaptive bisquare.