Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Abstract

Forecasting can be important for scheduled maintenance on the power system, either to replace a conventional generator at a time when enough wind power is expected or to do maintenance on a power line in dependency of the loading state. The reason why next-day forecasts are usually done with the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) data is the far better accuracy those models achieve in comparison with time-series models. The verification of model performance is dependent on the error type. The complexity and importance of the problem on the wind side has resulted in many works, which have been collected and brought into the form of large reports on the state of the art. The time-adaptivity of the estimation is an important property as the total system consisting of a wind farm or area, its surroundings, and the NWP model itself will be subject to changes over time.