Data-Driven Vehicle Trajectory Prediction

Abstract

Vehicle trajectory or route prediction is useful in online, data-driven transportation simulation to predict future traffic patterns and congestion, among other uses. The various approaches to route prediction have varying degrees of data required to predict future vehicle trajectories. Three approaches to vehicle trajectory prediction, along with extensions, are examined to assess their accuracy on an urban road network. These include an approach based on the intuition that drivers attempt to reduce their travel time, an approach based on neural networks, and an approach based on Markov models. The T-Drive trajectory data set consisting of GPS trajectories of over ten thousand taxicabs and including 15 million data points in Beijing, China is used for this evaluation. These comparisons illustrate that using trajectory data from other vehicles can substantially improve the accuracy of forward trajectory prediction in the T-Drive data set. These results highlight the benefit of exploiting dynamic data to improve the accuracy of transportation simulation predictions.