Timothy Childers. Philosophy and Probability. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013. ISBN: 978-0-19-966182-4 (hbk); 978-0-19-966183-1 (pbk). Pp. xviii + 194

Abstract

This book gives an account of the philosophy of probability. The material is presented unusually but very engagingly by recounting the adventures of a fictional character called Prokop, who is introduced at the beginning of chapter 1 as follows: Prokop has secured a scholarship to study in America, and wants to buy car insurance, an insured car being a necessity there. He's 23 and single. Much to his dismay, he learns that he has to pay almost twice as much as a 26-year-old man. The agent explains to him that while 15-to-24-year drivers make up 13.2 per cent of the driving population, they are involved in 25 per cent of all fatal accidents. As an age group they are by far the most dangerous drivers. (p. 1)1 However, Prokop is Czech, and we learn (p. 33) that there are fewer car accidents per capita in the Czech Republic than in America. Moreover, Prokop is such a pathologically cautious driver that he irritates his girl-friend. In effect, Prokop's difficulties with car insurance are a means of illustrating the reference-class problem, and, similarly, throughout the book, his various adventures and activities illustrate other points in the field.