Scenario-based model predictive operation control of islanded microgrids

Abstract

We propose a model predictive control (MPC) approach for the operation of islanded microgrids that takes into account the stochasticity of wind and load forecasts. In comparison to worst case approaches, the probability distribution of the prediction is used to optimize the operation of the microgrid, leading to less conservative solutions. Suitable models for time series forecast are derived and employed to create scenarios. These scenarios and the system measurements are used as inputs for a stochastic MPC, wherein a mixed-integer problem is solved to derive the optimal controls. In the provided case study, the stochastic MPC yields an increase of wind power generation and decrease of conventional generation.