Impacts of meteorological uncertainties on ozone pollution predictability estimated through meteorological and photochemical ensemble forecasts

Abstract

This study explores the sensitivity of ozone predictions from photochemical grid point simulations to small meteorological initial perturbations that are realistic in structure and evolution. Through both meteorological and photochemical ensemble forecasts with the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5 and the EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model‐3, the 24‐hour ensemble mean of meteorological conditions and the ozone concentrations compared fairly well against the observations for a high‐ozone event that occurred on 30 August during the Texas Air Quality Study of 2000 (TexAQS2000). Moreover, it was also found that there were dramatic uncertainties in the ozone prediction in Houston and surrounding areas due to initial meteorological uncertainties for this event. The high uncertainties in the ozone prediction in Houston and surrounding areas due to small initial wind and temperature uncertainties clearly demonstrated the importance of accurate representation of meteorological conditions for the Houston ozone prediction and the need for probabilistic evaluation and forecasting for air pollution, especially those supported by regulating agencies.