Perspectivas económicas para 1985-1990 : algunas inquietudes

Abstract

In September 1984, in "World Economy 1980-1990: The Divide?", The CEPII proposed two scenarios for the end of the decade. The first forecast a growth of 3% during the period 1985-1990 for the OECD countries. The other scenario assumed that the North American budget problem would have no possible solution and there would be financial concern in the face of excessive budget and external deficits for the United States. The brutal fall of the dollar would lead to a reaction to the rise in interest rates and a strong recession in 1987-1988. In June 1985, the two paths traced by these scenarios are still open. However, if for the specialized organizations the scenarios of the first type constitute the axis on which to order economic policies, it also multiplies the warnings and precautions about the risks of deviating towards the scenarios of the second type.