Watershed modeling of Haw River Basin for Hydrology, Water Quality and Climate Change Study

Abstract

Global climate change is expected to cause lot of serious challenges such as increase in sea level, difficulties in agriculture, abrupt changes in rainfall patterns and changes in ecosystem. Extreme climatic events are also expected to occur more frequently in the future. The study was undertaken to evaluate water availability issues in for the Jordan Lake in North Carolina under various extreme climatic conditions as influenced by the potential climate change. The widely used hydrologic simulation model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated from January 2000 to October 2009 using two USGS gage station monthly observed streamflow data. The calibrated SWAT model evidenced very good to excellent performance (R2 from 0.87 to 0.90 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (E) from 0.86 to 0.90). During Validation phase SWAT model showed very good performance (R2 from 0.86 to 0.89 and E from 0.76 to 0.88). Initial modeling results are promising, which form the basis for hydrological impact assessment of the potential climate change in the Haw River Watershed. This will be accomplished by coupling the calibrated modeling setup with climate models recommended in the IPCC Climate Change Assessment report.