Estimation of water fluxes into the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract

This study provides an estimate of the water runoff into the Mediterranean Sea and its variation from the 1980s to the year 2000. First the variability of climatic and physical factors across the Mediterranean catchment was studied through a principal component analysis. Then a model to estimate the water runoff was developed with the aim to represent this variability, including the various components determining the runoff generation (climatic, physiographic, and pedologic) and overcome the limited data availability for the area. The estimated water fluxes for the 1980–2000 period ranged from 282 to 327 km 3 yr −1 . Finally, it was shown through a trend analysis, that the fresh water discharge into the Mediterranean Sea did not exhibit any significant change during the study period in spite of a significant increase in temperature and partial decrease of precipitation. Consequently, awareness should be raised on possible depletion of other water stocks in the Mediterranean river basins, such as mountain glaciers and aquifers.