Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation to Estimate Kriging Model Parameters

Abstract

A kriging model can be used as a surrogate to a more computationally expensive model or simulation. It is capable of providing a continuous mathematical relationship that can interpolate a set of observations. One of the major issues with using kriging models is the potentially computationally expensive process of estimating the best model parameters. One of the most common methods used to estimate model parameters is Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). MLE of kriging model parameters requires the use of numerical optimization of a continuous but possibly multi-modal log-likelihood function. This paper presents some enhancements to gradient-based methods to make them more computationally efficient and compares the potential reduction in computational burden. These enhancements include the development of the analytic gradient and Hessian for the log-likelihood equation of a kriging model that uses a Gaussian spatial correlation function. The suggested algorithm is very similar to the Scoring algorithm traditionally used in statistics, a Newton-Raphson gradient-based optimization method.