Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

The report evaluates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime and water resources of the Blue Nile River Basin in Ethiopia. It starts from the construction of the climate change scenarios based on the outcomes of several general circulation models (GCMs), uses a simple hydrological model to convert theses scenarios into runoff, and examines the impacts by means of a set of indices. The results, however uncertain with existing accuracy of climate models, suggest that the region is likely to have the future potential to produce hydropower, increase flow duration, and increase water storage capacity without affecting outflows to the riparian countries in the 2050s.