Future Climate Scenarios for the Indus Basin

Abstract

Examines the literature and available data on hydroclimatic variability and change on the Indus Basin plains, comparing historical fluctuations in climatic and hydrologic variables and reviewing scenarios of climate change derived from general circulation models (GCMs), including the generation of future scenarios of changing snow and ice melt in the Upper Indus Basin (IUB). Historical trends show statistically significant increasing temperatures and annual precipitation over the last century, and the general findings from a wide range of general circulation model (GCM) outputs show agreement among models regarding continued increases in temperature. Models regarding changes in precipitation (both in magnitude and direction) do not agree, but indicators do show a general trend in increased precipitation during the summer and a decrease during the winter, suggesting the primary impact on the UIB could be a shift in the timing of peak runoff and not a major change in annual volume.